The Impact of the Global Financial Meltdown and New Growth Strategies for the Philippines

This paper discusses the impact of the global financial meltdown on the Philippines. To cushion future capital flow, exchange rate volatilities and export collapse, new growth strategies for the Philippines should include on the financial and capital account fronts: a) controls on short-term capital flows; b) a BBC (basket, band, crawl) system to replace the free floating exchange rate regime; and c) a bigger reliance on domestic debt financing and a shift away from external debt financing of growth to avoid external debt crises due to external shocks. In developing a vibrant domestic internal demand in order to reduce over-dependence on exports, the following will be vital: a) a strong move to correct income and regional inequalities and disparities, including strong anti-poverty policies; b) an industrial policy to make stronger linkages and productive capacity in the economy; c) fiscal reforms (especially tax) in order to generate sufficient funds to finance much needed infrastructure and human capital, and to address the grave problems of poverty across the country; d) enlightened and independent governance by a pro-poor and democratic state; and e) an end to pro-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies and a strong adoption of counter-cyclical policies.