Evaluating risks of biological control introductions: A probabilistic risk-assessment approach

We address the need to develop improved quantitative procedures for estimating potential non-target impacts of biological control agents in this paper, and propose a probabilistic risk-assessment approach. This approach employs risk-assessment procedures commonly used in many disciplines. The procedure described here uses precision trees to estimate risk based on probabilities that biological control agents will demonstrate predictable behavior under specific conditions, based on their ecological characteristics. We use Trichogramma ostriniae, an egg parasitoid deployed augmentatively against Ostrina nubilalis in the US as case study to conceptually demonstrate the proposed procedure. We propose that this new approach has potential for widespread use in quantifying non-target risk of biological control introductions prior to introductions being made.