Spatio-temporal dynamics of land use changes in response to external pressures in Oman: Greenhouse cropping as an example

Further from the northern coast of Oman new farm developments were more frequent than closer to the coast; they were also larger. The density of farms was highest close to Muscat although the distance enclosing 50% of farms had shifted away from Muscat during the study period. The dominance of Muscat is likely to be related to access to markets and infrastructure development. The increase in groundwater salinity was also highest close to Muscat and may be responsible for the shift in greenhouse density. Salinization of groundwater is severe close to the coast and was responsible for the reduced density of greenhouses near the coast. Land abandonment was highest close to Muscat and to the coast, reflecting changes in groundwater salinity and urbanization pressure. Less evidence was available for a direct shift from farmland to urban land use. Recent urban developments were largely located in areas already abandoned by agriculture. The paper also discusses likely future trends in land use change given that Oman’s population is increasing at over 2% annually and demand for urban land is increasing. The identification of a “salinity corridor” within which much of the future land use change may occur is discussed.