A Probabilistic Approach to Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power Systems under Uncertainties

Restructuring of power system has faced this industry with numerous uncertainties. As a result, transmission expansion planning (TEP) like many other problems has become a very challenging problem in such systems. Due to these changes, various approaches have been proposed for TEP in the new environment. In this paper a new algorithm for TEP is presented. The method is based on probabilistic locational marginal price (LMP) considering electrical loss, transmission tariffs, and transmission congestion costs. It also considers the load curtailment cost in LMP calculations. Furthermore, to emphasize on competence of competition ability of the system, the final plan(s) is (are) selected based on minimization of average of total congestion cost for transmission system.