KRİZLERİ İNCELEMEDE KULLANILAN NİTEL TERCİH MODELLERİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BİR PROBİT MODEL UYGULAMASI: (1988-2009)

In our study, firstly we are giving place to logit and probit models which are qualitative choice models. In the empirical part, 1988-2009 period in Turkey, we analyze the explanatory of macroeconomic variables on the crises by using probit model. Additionally, by calculating the marginal effects, we examine the degree of influences on crises. According to the probit model results; interest rate and import variables were found statistically insignificant, whereas inflation, exchange rate, unemployment rate, gross national product and industrial product index variables were obtained significant and important.