Forecasting Area and Production of Guava in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

This paper forecasts guava area and production in Pakistan using time series data over the period 1997-98 to 2014-15. The study used the Box Jenkins approach and forecast was made up to the period 2029-30. The order of ARIMA model was identified using autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Suitable model for area and production of guava are ARIMA (0,0,0) and ARIMA (1,1,0) respectively. The projected area of guava for the forecasted period is 61.37 thousand hectares each year. Area of guava shows a static trend throughout the forecasted period. The forecasted production of guava is 502.14 thousand tonnes in the year 2029-30. Guava production can be increased using improved guava cultivars, improved system of irrigation and adequate cultural practices. Strategy should be adopted to bring more barren land under guava cultivation. This would help to increase guava production in future.