Habitat suitability projections for the Black Pomfret (Parastromateus niger) under climate change: an ensemble modeling approach

Marine ecosystems are under serious threat from climate change, which can alter species distributions, biodiversity patterns, community structure, and ecosystem functioning by affecting temperature, acidification, and current patterns. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a useful tool for ecologists to link species’ fundamental niches with environmental conditions and project potential distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. This study modeled current and future habitat suitability for the black pomfret (Parastromateus niger) using an ensemble SDM with 1,396 occurrence records and environmental data layers (depth, temperature, salinity, currents). Six algorithms (MAXENT, GAM, GLM, RF, ANN, MARS) with ensemble approach modeled species distribution under current and future semi-optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios for both 2050s and 2100s. Models were evaluated by AUC, TSS and Cohen’s Kappa indices. According to the results, future range changes under all optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were negative. These results reveal prospective climate change impacts on the geographic range of P. niger, providing a valuable basis for science-based adaptation initiatives aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability of populations. Localized conservation and global mitigation policies are urgently needed to sustain P. niger and reliant human communities into the future. Habitat modeling supports climate-resilient management strategies for threatened marine species.