Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year 2010 for France

A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a ‘skewed-normal production-profile’ model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called ‘modified logit function’. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for France. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available.