A stochastic version of the dynamic linear programming model MESSAGE III

This paper introduces an approach to modeling the uncertainties concerning future characteristics of energy technologies within the framework of long-term dynamic linear programming models. The approach chosen explicitly incorporates the uncertainties in the model, endogenizing interactions between decision structure and uncertainties involved. The use of this approach for future investment costs of electricity generation technologies in the framework of very long-term energy scenarios shows improvements in model behavior and more robust solutions with respect to technology choices made.