EDSSF: A decision support system (DSS) for electricity peak-load forecasting

Electricity authorities in the UAE have not been successful in developing reliable and accurate models of system peak load. In this study, we develop a time-series-based decision-support system that integrates data management, model base management, simulation, graphic display, and statistical analysis to provide near-optimal forecasting models. The model base includes a variety of time-series techniques, such as exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins (BJ), and dynamic regression. The system produces short-term forecasts (one year ahead) by analyzing the behavior of monthly peak loads. The performance of the DSS is validated through a comparison with results suggested by econometricians.