Severe accident risks in fossil energy chains: A comparative analysis

Accidents in the energy sector have been identified as one of the main contributors to man-made disasters. The present work focuses on the assessment of severe accident risks relating to fossil energy chains. Evaluations were based on the highly comprehensive Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), which was established at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). The historical experience represented in this database allows a detailed comparison of severe accident risks in the broader energy sector. The analyses are not limited to power plants, but cover full energy chains, showing that immediate fatality rates are much higher for full fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. The different energy chains were analyzed separately, addressing selected technical aspects of severe accidents, followed by comparative evaluations. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly lower for countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and European Union 25 countries (EU25) than for non-OECD countries. In addition to aggregated values, frequency–consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include information such as the maximum credible extent of damages.