Modelling survival probability of individual trees in Norway spruce stands under different thinning regimes

The probability that an individual tree will remain in even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands subjected to different thinning programmes was modelled, using data from a thinning experiment established in 25 localities in southern Sweden. A logistic regression approach was used to predict the probability and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the fit. Diameter at breast height (DBH), quadratic mean DBH, thinning intensity, thinning quotient, basal area, number of stems per hectare, stand age, number of thinnings, and site index were used as explanatory variables. Separate analyses for stands thinned from below, stands thinned from above, and unthinned stands were performed. The modelled probability graphs for trees not being removed, plotted against their diameter at breast height, had clear S-shapes for both unthinned stands and stands thinned from below. The graph for stands thinned from above was bell-shaped.