The Rush to Coal: Is the Analysis Complete

Real options theory is clear that as volatility increases there is an increasing value to delay and learning. Given current conditions in the utility industry, it seems a critical time for the industry to recognize the value of caution and learning, particularly with respect to the construction of new coal plants. Utilities do have options such as delaying retirements and/or allowing prices to rise. “Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty.” – Publius Cornelius Tacitus