Multiple regression and spatial policy analysis: George Udny Yule and the origins of statistical social science

Studies on the history of statistics by MacKenzie and on quantitative geography by Barnes have suggested that the lineaments and assumptions of statistical methods such as correlation and regression are closely related to their origin in biometrics and eugenics. This paper challenges that view by examining in detail the work of George Udny Yule. Yule was a colleague of Karl Pearson in the 1890s, but was interested in social science and social policy applications, not eugenics. In the late 1890s he constructed both the theory and application of multiple regression analysis, using geographical data. The paper examines Yuleʹs work and its context, relating it to debates on the history of statistics, and traces the subsequent early diffusion of regression and correlation into the social sciences. The paper concludes by arguing for greater recognition of Yuleʹs pivotal role, and also for further studies on the history of quantitative social science.