A mechanical fluid-dynamical model for ground movements at Campi Flegrei caldera

We present here a consistent model, which explains the mechanisms of unrest phenomena at Campi Flegrei (Italy), both at short-term (years) and at secular scales. The model consists basically of two effects: the first one is related to the elastic response of the shallow crust to increasing pressure within a shallow magma chamber; the second involves the fluid-dynamics of shallow aquifers in response to increasing pressure and/or temperature at depth. The most important roles in the proposed model are played by the effect of lateral stress-strain discontinuities marking the inner caldera borders and by the response of the geothermal system to the increase of pressure and/or temperature coming from the magma chamber. The model takes into account most results of recent research, and it is able to explain in a unitary way most of geophysical observations recently collected at Campi Flegrei. Some new results, presented in this paper, explain the mechanism of generation of seismicity in terms of Coulomb stress changes, and the difference between secular and short-term deformations, in terms of the non linear effect of the bordering discontinuities. The coupled effects of magma chamber stresses with the dynamics of shallow fluids provide results for a semi-quantitative interpretation of observed ground deformation, seismicity and of their time evolution. The model has very important implications for the hazard assessment during unrest phenomena. It represents, for the part involving the fluid-dynamical response, the ideal continuation of the basic, fundamental models and intuitions of Oliveri del Castillo and coworkers (Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1969. Sulla genesi del bradisimo flegro. Atti Associazione Geofisica Italiana, 18th Congress, Napoli, pp. 557-594; Casterano, L., Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1976. Hydromdynamics and geodynamics in the Phlegraean Fields area of Italy. Nature, 264, 161-154).