Subjective life expectancy in the US: correspondence to actuarial estimates by age, sex and race

This study maps the relationship between subjective and actuarial life expectancy in a 1995 national sample of 2037 Americans of ages 18–95. Subjective estimates parallel age-specific actuarial ones based on current age-specific mortality rates. However males expect to live about 3 years longer than the actuarial estimate and blacks expect to live about 6 years longer. The apparent optimism remains after adjusting for socioeconomic status and the signs and symptoms of good health. Contrary to economistsʹ rational-expectations hypothesis, young adults do not adjust their life expectancies upward to account for the favorable trends in mortality rates.