Anticipation of migration and psychological stress and the Three Gorges Dam project, China

Findings from a prospective study of project-induced migration in Chinaʹs Three Gorges Dam project are reported. The study tests the hypotheses that anticipation of involuntary migration is stressful and that the harmful effects are partially mediated and moderated by the resources migrants possess. Using data collected from a sample of designated migrants (n=975) who will be forced to relocate because they live in an area, which will be flooded once the Three Gorges project is completed, and non-migrants (n=555) in the same region, our analysis indicates that anticipation of involuntary migration is a robust predictor of mental distress. Anticipation of forced migration elevates depression (CES-D) not only directly, but also indirectly by weakening the social and the psychological resources (i.e., social support and mastery), which safeguard the mental well-being of migrants. However, our results show much less support for the hypothesis that resources moderate harmful effects of forced migration.