Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments

The arid lowlands of Central Asia are highly dependent on the water supplied by the Tien Shan mountains. Snow and ice storage make large contributions to current runoff, particularly in summer. Two runoff models with different temporal resolutions, HBV-ETH and OEZ, were applied in three glaciated catchments of the Tien Shan mountains. Scenario runs were produced for a climate change caused by the doubling of atmospheric CO2 as predicted by the GISS global circulation model and assuming a 50% reduction of glaciation extent, as well as a complete loss of glaciation. Agreement of the results was best for runs based on 50% glaciation loss, where both models predict an increase in spring and summer runoff compared to current levels. Scenarios for complete loss of glaciation predict an increase in spring runoff levels, followed by lower runoff levels for July and August. Model predictions differ concerning the degree of reduction of late summer runoff. These scenarios are sensitive to model simulation of basin precipitation, as well as to reduction of glaciation extent.