An Open-Access Analysis of the Northern Anchovy Fishery

In this paper we model the northern anchovy fishery using open access dynamics. The growth and production functions are estimated from U.S. reduction fishery data and we explore the dynamics of a simple open access model using these estimates. The existence of a stable long-term equilibrium and limit cycles are demonstrated. An expanded model then incorporates the behavior of the Mexican and U.S. fisheries into the open-access framework. Nonlinear optimization is used to estimate cost and adjustment coefficients for both fleets. We apply this model to forecast the likely future behavior of the northern anchovy fishery