A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum

This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set.