Evaluation of seasonal forecast skill over China

Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal time scales, are provided on the World Wide Web, and experimental digital forecast products are made available to international collaborators. Over Asia, these experimental forecasts are now being used to drive regional prediction and various application models at National Taiwan University (NTU) and the Hong Kong Observatory. Roads et al. [Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82 (2001) 639] and Terra Chen et al. [Atmos. Oceanogr. Sci. 12 (2003a) 377] previously discussed the basic forecast and analysis system. The purpose of this paper is to discuss specific synoptic characteristics of recent seasonal forecasts as a guide to further application and development.