Modeling and forecasting extreme hot events in the central Ebro valley, a continental-Mediterranean area

This work has three objectives, first, to analyze the observed change in the summer maximum daily temperature during the period 1951–2004, in the centre of the Ebro river basin, a region situated in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula. Secondly, to characterize the extreme hot event behaviour by means of a statistical model consisting of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, to represent the occurrence, and three regression models, each with an adequate non-Normal error distribution, to model its severity. The model parameters are allowed to depend on temperature covariates, to take into account the influence of global warming in hot event generating process. Finally, using the fitted model and different outputs from a GCM, we obtain a medium term projection, up to 2050, of the expected behaviour of these extreme events.