Strategic multiple-use forest planning in Lithuania — applying multi-criteria decision-making and scenario analysis for decision support in an economy in transition

While many Western European countries mourn the loss of their natural forest ecosystems, a country such as Lithuania enjoys large areas of forests with natural characteristics. Paradoxically, the long rotation ages used in traditional Lithuanian forestry, which are prerequisites for the many appreciated environmental values of the forests, have been questioned from the utilitarian market-economy criterion of maximising net present value. In order to evaluate such beliefs, this study presents a methodology that incorporates environmental values into the strategic forest-management planning process, using the Dubrava Forest in Central Lithuania as a case area. Simulation, scenario analysis, optimisation and multi-criteria decision-making techniques are used in strategic analysis of different management rationalities. The case study is based on recent (1998) management prescriptions, sales prices, labour costs and an interest rate of 2%. The study analyses the effects on the environmental values if the traditional management approach is changed into management based on optimisation of net present value. It is concluded that traditional Lithuanian forest-management supports recreational and ecological functions at a significantly higher level than would forests managed after economic optimisation alone. The methodology used in the study proves a promising tool for policy analysis, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform for evaluation of different multiple-use management approaches. If the importance of the multiple use of Lithuanian forests is not continuously recognised in forest management, there is a risk that the forests will lose many of the recreational and near-natural ecosystem characteristics, which are rarely found in Western Europe.