Ways the Aral Sea behaves

The convenient analytical approach based on the water level equation and its solutions is applied to the analysis of the water balance of the Aral Sea, which now consists of two independent seas—the Large and Small Aral, and its temporal changes due to natural processes and anthropogenic impact. The estimates made by this approach show that preservation of the Large Sea at a level that is quite close to the current one requires an additional discharge of not less than 7.6 km3/year, which may be in principle achieved by effective water conservation technologies. However, the Large Sea, in its turn, is close to being divided into two unequal and completely independent eastern and western parts. This process will be accelerated by annual fluctuations of the Amu Darya water flow together with difference between water level rise and fall rates. Therefore, the preservation of the sea as an ecological system with reasonable water volume cannot be achieved without providing independent water inflow to the western part of the Large Sea. Otherwise, the loss of up to a half of the current seaʹs water is inevitable just because of irrational water discharge to the eastern part alone.