Alterations in nutrient limitations — Scenarios of a changing Baltic Sea

Previous trend studies have shown increasing nitrogen and phosphorus as well as decreasing silica concentrations in the water mass of the Baltic Sea. This has had an impact on the amount of primary production, but also on the quality and succession of plankton species. Present study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of potential nutrient limitations in the Baltic Sea for the time period 1970–2000. Generally, low concentrations of DSi can limit the diatom blooms and such conditions are found in the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland during spring and summer. Nutrient ratios, DSi:DIN, DSi:DIP and DIN:DIP, are often used to determine which nutrient may limit the primary production. Annual long-term temporal trends of silica to inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus respectively show consistent decreasing patterns. The largest slopes are detected during spring and summer for DSi:DIN and during spring for DSi:DIP ratios. For the DIN:DIP ratio significant slopes are only found in a few locations despite increasing levels for both nutrients, displaying a large variation in trends. In the open Baltic Proper the present trends are positive during winter and negative during spring and autumn. Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga are areas where both DSi:DIP and DSi:DIN ratios are found close to the Redfield ratios for diatoms. Together with the evaluated trends these suggest that the Gulfs may become silica limited in a relatively near future. These findings give some implications on the development and impact of changing nutrient concentrations.