Holistic aspects in landscape development: a scenario approach

A holistic approach to landscape development includes biological, physical and human components. This approach becomes even more useful when landscapes face rapid change. This paper is based on a landscape model (Keisteri, 1990) that consists of visible material features, perceivable non-material features, and underlying processes. Landscape change is sometimes unpredictable because the transformation consists of autonomous as well as human-steered processes. This study argues that study of the perceivable, non-material features and underlying processes influencing landscape change can be used to create scenarios that predict the visible, material changes in the landscape. As an example, a case study has been carried out in Obinitsa, Estonia. Four scenarios were created to project the possible landscape changes in that marginal area. After that the locals’ preferences of these scenario were tested. Of the different development options people prefer those which resemble the identity of the landscape or those which, although introducing larger changes, create a feeling of certainty, predictability, welfare and well-being.