Modeling the dynamics of landscape structure in Asia’s emerging desakota regions: a case study in Shenzhen

The rapid urbanization taking place in Asia since 1970 has exhibited a process different from that of the developed countries in the West. This process has contributed to the emergence of a new landscape in Asia — widely known as the desakota (a combination of two Indonesian words: “desa” for village, “kota” for town) regions described in the McGee–Ginsburg model. These desakota regions are characterized by an intense mix of agricultural and non-agricultural activities that often stretch along corridors between large city cores. Although, the McGee–Ginsburg model captures the socio-demographic dimensions of the rapid urbanization process, little is known about the dynamics of landscape structures in the emerging desakota regions in Asia. By linking remote sensing, landscape characterization indices, and cellular automata modeling with geographic information systems (GIS), this paper develops a GIS-based spatial analysis and modeling approach to study the landscape dynamics of the desakota regions in southeast China. We tested our method using data between 1992 and 1996 for the city of Longhua in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone — one of the fastest growing areas in southeast China. The results not only confirm the effectiveness of GIS-based spatial analysis and modeling approach in studying the ecological impacts of human activities, but also reveal the salient features of landscape dynamics in the desakota regions. Drawing from the results of this research, we conclude that the pace of urbanization and the size of desakota regions must be controlled in order to create a sustainable future in developing countries.