Land use model for carbon conservation across a midwestern USA landscape

Land management to promote forest growth can conserve and sequester a significant amount of terrestrial carbon and thereby reduce the buildup of atmospheric carbon. This study uses geographic information systems (GIS) technology to develop a multi-criteria land use model for Butler County in southwestern Ohio that ranks rural land areas for restorative forest management based on their potential for carbon conservation. Our results identify 161 sites, or 18% of the county study area outside of incorporated urban areas, that have topographic and soil conditions productive for forest growth, and 21% of the mapped area is on transitional (uncultivated and undeveloped) lands that are potentially available for restorative management. The study strongly supports the planned protection of lands along stream corridors; 43% of the transitional lands ranked high potential are within a 100 m stream buffer and 80% are within a 500 m buffer. It also reveals “gaps” between the predicted carbon conservation map and regional plans for conservation, particularly showing the need to consider incorporating woodlots into privately owned farms on flat uplands with deep soil profiles. The study provides a valuable ecological planning resource that prioritizes lands for rural conservation based on their functional contributions to the regional carbon balance.