The impact of changes in agricultural technology on long-term trends in deforestation

To overcome the limitations of existing aggregated national deforestation models in explaining the impact of changes in agricultural technological on deforestation a two-zone national political economy model is outlined and illustrated by examples from the Philippines and Thailand. It suggests that deforestation trends depend on where and when new technologies are adopted and by whom. In particular, they are sensitive to the balance between adoption in the highly productive Core and the less fertile Periphery where remaining forest concentrates as a country develops. Without parallel adoption in the Periphery, rising yields in the Core alone may not control deforestation. State intervention can help to overcome adoption bias but is still limited by state–élite–corporate links. Five criteria are proposed to assess the likely effectiveness of agricultural policies to control deforestation: (1) improve sustainable farm productivity in the Core, (2) improve sustainable farm productivity in the Periphery, (3) generate sufficient manufacturing/service jobs for ex-farmers, (4) reform land tenure and (5) decentralize state agriculture departments to promote the participation of farmers in the design of appropriate technologies. Deforestation is likely to continue if criteria 1–3 are not met.