A comparison of simulated and observed ozone mixing ratios for the summer of 1998 in Western Europe

This study describes and evaluates the newly developed European scale Eulerian chemistry transport model CHIMERE-continental. The model is designed for seasonal simulations and real time forecasts without the use of super-computers. For the purpose of model evaluation simulated ozone mixing ratios for the period between 1 May 1998 and 30 September 1998 are compared to observational data from 115 European surface sites. In order to facilitate the interpretation of future forecasts a statistic is established to estimate the reliability of a simulated pollution level. Besides this, the comparison is done by means of time series, scatter plots, a spectral analysis and the calculation of RMS-errors and biases of the model results corresponding to each observation site. It turns out that the mean RMS-error of the simulated daily maximum ozone mixing ratio for the sites considered a priori as well suited for a model comparison is about 10 ppb. For the same period but a reduced number of sites observed concentrations of NO2 and ethene are compared to simulated values. Difficulties encountered with the representativeness of observations when trying to evaluate a mesoscale air pollution model are discussed.