A semi-empirical model for predicting the effect of changes in traffic flow patterns on carbon monoxide concentrations

A simple semi-empirical model for predicting the effect of changes in traffic flow patterns on carbon monoxide concentrations is presented. The traffic component of the model requires average vehicle emission rate estimates for a range of driving conditions, as well as traffic flow data for the site of interest. The dispersion component of the model is based on a modified empirically optimised box model requiring only wind speed and direction information. The model is evaluated at a suburban site in Hamilton, New Zealand. Despite the simplicity of the model, produces reliable concentration predictions when tested on days with significantly different traffic flow patterns from those days with which the optimum model parameters were evaluated.