Hierarchical space-time modelling of PM10 pollution

In this paper, we propose a hierarchical spatio-temporal model for daily mean concentrations of PM10 pollution. The main aims of the proposed model are the identification of the sources of variability characterising the PM10 process and the estimation of pollution levels at unmonitored spatial locations. We adopt a fully Bayesian approach, using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms. We apply the model on PM10 data measured at 11 monitoring sites located in the major towns and cities of Italyʹs Emilia-Romagna Region. The model is designed for areas with PM10 measurements available; the case of PM10 level estimation from emissions data is not handled. The model has been carefully checked using Bayesian p-values and graphical posterior predictive checks. Results show that the temporal random effect is the most important when explaining PM10 levels.