Ecological and agricultural productivity indices and their dynamics in a sub-humid/semi-arid region from central Mexico

Using precipitation data from a semi-arid region in the highlands of central Mexico, historical values of productivity are assessed. Production models based on climatic indices are discussed. An empirical rain simulation equation shows that it is possible to reproduce the expected values of productivity from observed ecosystems and agricultural yields. A graphical method is proposed to estimate intrinsic growth rate and maximum sustainable yield. Spatial rainfall variability induced by orographic effects, introduces a chaotic semicyclic behavior as expected in a logistic simulation equation. Resilience and predictable drought-productivity tendencies can also be derived from this model.