Improvement of ED prediction of cardiac mortality among patients with symptoms suggestive of acute myocardial infarction

A study was undertaken to evaluate the 1-year risk of cardiac death for patients with chest pain/suspected acute myocardial infarction in the emergency department (ED) and express the prognosis in a statistical model. Clinical variables and electrocardiogram were correlated to cardiac death during 1 year. Cox regression model was used to estimate the risk of death as a continuous function of a risk score and the time interval. From these, the prognosis for each patient can be calculated. There were 6,794 visits by 5,303 patients followed for 1 year, during which 604 patients died. The absolute risk of cardiac death can be calculated from the independent predictors for cardiac death: age; sex; histories of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and congestive heart failure; and symptoms, electrocardiographic pattern, and degree of suspicion of acute myocardial infarction on admission. This model allows estimation of the prognosis for every patient with chest pain/suspected acute myocardial infarction from data easily available in the ED.