A lower bound using Hamilton-type circuits and its applications

This paper presents a degree-two probability lower bound for the union of an arbitrary set of events in an arbitrary probability space. The bound is designed in terms of the first-degree Bonferroni summation and pairwise joint probabilities of events, which are represented as weights of edges in a Hamilton-type circuit in a connected graph. The proposed lower bound strengthens the Dawson-Sankoff lower bound in the same way that Hunter and Worsleyʹs degree-two upper bound improves the degree-two Bonferroni-type optimal upper bound. It can be applied to statistical inference in time series and outlier diagnoses as well as the study of dose response curves.