Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian fallow deer Dama dama mesopotamica Original Research Article

The Persian fallow deer Dama dama mesopotamica is extremely rare in the wild, but reintroduction of breeding animals from the Hai-Bar Carmel, Israel, may be feasible. A life table was constructed from data available in the world studbook. I used a Monte Carlo Leslie matrix simulation model to estimate probability of extinction due to demographic stochasticity, using different female age structures and numbers of individuals. Based on the simulations, 13 prime-aged females aged 2–4 years would be required to ensure an extinction probability of less than 1% over the next 100 years. Substituting older age groups increases extinction probability, thereby increasing the number of animals needed to achieve a 0·01 extinction probability. Due to poor reproductive success at the Hai-Bar Carmel prior to 1990, few females older than 5 are available. Also, there are no more than 11 females in each of the 2–4 years age groups. Thus a combination of eight 2-year-old and five 3-year-old females or seven 2-year-old, four 3-year-old, and two 4-year-old females is recommended. The choice between these two options should be based on genetic variability.