Using models of bird abundance to predict the impact of current land-use and conservation policies in the flow country of Caithness and Sutherland, Northern Scotland Original Research Article

Two models of dunlin Calidris alpina habitat preference appropriate at two different spatial scales are used to predict the distribution of the species within a continuous 1-ha grid across 1850 km2 of moorland in the Flow Country (Caithness and Sutherland, northern Scotland). The result is a spatially referenced database on the inherent habitat quality of moorland in the region for dunlin. Digitised boundaries of notified and prospective SSSIs and areas earmarked for commercial peat extraction are superimposed on the ‘map’ that the database represents and the quality of enclosed moorland is assessed. We predict that 33% and 44% of the present dunlin population of the Flow Country can be found within notified or prospective SSSIs respectively. The most and least valuable notified and prospective sites for this species are identified. Peat extraction in the Flow Country could represent a trivial or serious threat to waders depending on which sites are developed. Some proposed peat extraction sites are as important for dunlin as moorland SSSIs.