Life-history and viability analysis of the endangered Hawaiian stilt Original Research Article

The Hawaiian stilt Himantopus mexicanus knudseni is an endangered, endemic subspecies of black-necked stilt. We present life-history data required to perform population viability analysis (PVA), and the results of a series of PVAs under two scenarios, treating (a) the subspecies as a single population, and (b) six subpopulations as a metapopulation. We performed sensitivity analyses on model parameters and used results to address various management options. Both basic models predicted that stilts would increase to fill available habitat with no chance of a significant decline. Catastrophe, maximum age, and density-dependent reproduction had little effect on population projections. Rapid declines in the probability of stilt populations persisting occurred when clutch failure rate or first-year mortality rate increased above 70%, or when adult mortality rate increased above 30%. Model predictions of mean population size at 200 years tracked changes in carrying capacity. If current conditions change such that rates of clutch failure or stilt mortality increase, population declines and eventual extinction becomes more likely. Managers, therefore, should maintain predator control, limit water level fluctuations, and maintain current habitat area. Downlisting is not warranted because wetland management and predator control are necessary for Hawaiian stilts to persist.