Second extinction of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in Scotland?

The capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.), a large forest gamebird reintroduced into Scotland in the 1830s, has been declining since the 1970s. This has been attributed to a reduced reproductive rate associated with climate change, and deaths of full-grown birds flying into forest fences. Here, three independent estimates are combined to show that in the 1990s the mean annual rate of decline for adult hens was 18% (S.E. 5%). Without fence deaths, it is calculated that the hen population could have increased at an annual rate of 6% (S.E. 10%). If recent trends persist, the bird will soon be extinct again in Scotland, but without forest fences it would probably survive.