Prediction of future origin-destination matrix of air passengers by fratar and gravity models

This article presents the need to predict the future demand of the air traffic passengers for scheduled commercial airlines. To determine the passengers demand, we have proposed an algorithm for assigning the origin destination (OD) matrix of the passengers air traffic between different airports. In order to realize the problem, we assume two different circumstances. Firstly, we predicted the total air traffic passengers with the target year. Secondly, we distributed the air traffic passengers between airports according to geographic location using the gravity and fratar models. The effectiveness of proposed method was examined through an air transportation network in Sumatra island (in Indonesia) as a case study.