A nalysis of diffusion paths for photovoltaic technology based on experience curves

This paper assesses the prospects for diffusion of photovoltaic (PV) technology for electricity generation in grid-connected systems. The analysis begins with the calculation of the break-even price of PV systems and modules, which is the price that can assure commercial viability without incentives or subsidies. The calculated average break-even price of PV systems for building-integrated applications is about $3.2 /W , but can go up to about $4.5 /W in areas with very good solar irradiation p p and if a low real discount rate is applied. These are higher values than the break-even prices estimated in the literature to date. PV system break-even prices for intermediate load generation in utility-owned systems are also calculated, their average being about $1/W . The methodology of experience curves is used to predict what would be the different levels of p cumulative world PV shipments required to reach the calculated break-even prices of PV systems, assuming different trends in the relationship between price and the increase in cumulative shipments. The years in which the break-even levels of cumulative shipments could be theoretically obtained are then calculated by considering different market growth rates. Photovoltaics could enter the niche of building-integrated applications without incentives in the first years of the next decade, provided that the PR is 80% and the average annual world market growth rate is at least 15%. The final part of the paper analyzes the niche markets or applications that seem promising for the diffusion of photovoltaics in the next few years.  2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.