Safety Analysis of the Patch Load Resistance of Plate Girders: Influence of Model Error and Variability

This study aims to undertake a statistical study to evaluate the accuracy of nine models that have been previously proposed for estimating the ultimate resistance of plate girders subjected to patch loading. For each model, mean errors and standard errors, as well as the probability of underestimating or overestimating patch load resistance, are estimated and the resultant values are compared one to another. Prior to that, the models are initially calibrated in order to improve interaction formulae using an experimental data set collected from the literature. The models are then analyzed by computing design factors associated with a target risk level (probability of exceedance). These models are compared one to another considering uncertainties existed in material and geometrical properties. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate random variables. The statistical parameters of the calibrated models are calculated for various coefficients of variations regardless of their correlation with the random resistance variables. These probabilistic results are very useful for evaluating the stochastic sensitivity of the calibrated models.