Wheat growth simulation and yield prediction with seasonal forecasts and a numerical model

Wheat is a major winter crop in northern Italy. Italian agricultural markets and government agencies would undoubtedly benefit from the early availability of wheat yield forecasts at the regional and national scales as useful support in decision making. In this study we tested the skill of seasonal weather forecasts, in combination with observed weather data, as input to a crop model working in water limited conditions. The observations were used to simulate wheat growth from sowing up to 2 months before harvest, while seasonal forecasts were used afterwards to predict final yields. Observations included climatic variables and water table levels from a location in the Po river plain (Bologna, Italy), while seasonal forecasts came from the Demeter EU project and consisted of a dataset of downscaled multi-model ensemble hindcasts.