CO2 emissions in the Brazilian industrial sector according to the integrated energy planning model (IEPM)

During the 1990s, Brazilian industry accounted for over 34% of CO2 emissions deriving from fossil fuel consumption, and over 58% of the net CO2 emissions deriving from biomass consumption. Such as the energy intensity indicator commonly used to measure the energy consumption efficiency of the industrial sector, the emission intensity indicator was adopted to measure the CO2 emission efficiency in economic terms. However, this indicator masks key variables in the analysis, such as the structure of the industrial park, the average monetary value of production and the growth in industrial output. The effect of these variables becomes apparent when comparing the development of emission intensity with the development of energy intensity, through a third indicator: the specific energy emission. In this article, this comparison is based on a prospective analysis carried out through the IEPM model for three different energy consumption growth scenarios for Brazilʹs industrial sector. According to the results, it is possible to conclude that even with a high share of biomass sources in Brazilʹs energy grid, maintenance of the industrial production structure based on energy-intensive industries that produce low added value goods is not environmentally suitable.