The effect of wind power on CO2 abatement in the Nordic Countries

Simulations with the power market model EMPS and the energy system model EFOM have been made to assess the effects of large-scale wind production on the CO2 abatement in the Nordic countries. We are mostly focusing on the year 2010, comparing the results with substantial wind power amounts to a base case scenario. The results for the EMPS simulations with 16–46 TWh/a wind production in Nordic countries (4–12% of electricity consumption), show that wind power replaces mostly coal-fired power generation. As a result of all fuels replaced by wind production a CO2 reduction is achieved, of 700–620 g CO2/kWh. The results for the simulations of Finnish energy system show similarly that new wind power capacity replaces mainly coal-fired generation. In another scenario it has been assumed that the use of coal-fired generation is prohibited in order to meet the Finnish Kyoto target. In this case new wind power capacity would replace mainly natural gas combined-cycle capacity in separate electricity production and the average CO2 reduction would be about 300 g CO2/kWh. This case reflects the situation in the future, when there is possibly no more coal to be replaced.