The net cost of biofuels in Thailand—An economic analysis

Biofuels are expected to represent a growing portion of liquid fuel consumption in Thailand due to environmental and social considerations in conjunction with policy goals supporting their domestic production and consumption. This paper reviews the economic costs associated with biofuel policy implementation in Thailand in the short term target year of 2011. Internal (production) and external (environmental, social, etc.) costs and benefits are evaluated, and, where possible, monetized. Domestic production of biofuel is calculated to be 9.5 billion THB (317 million USD) more expensive than importing the equivalent amount of petroleum. The environmental benefits from GHG savings as well as losses due to increased ground level ozone formation and government expenditure to support the biofuel industry yield a total “net cost” of 8.6 billion THB or 121 THB (4.04 USD) per capita for the year 2011. This result is contextualized with the (non-monetized) consideration that although biofuels are somewhat more expensive in the short term, their domestic production allows virtually all of the money to stay within the Thai economy as opposed to being sent abroad. This fact, coupled with significant uncertainty in future petroleum prices, could strongly influence the direction of Thai policy with respect to biofuels.