Medium-term demand for European cross-border electricity transmission capacity

The aim of this paper is to discuss the needs for investment in electricity interconnectors in Europe by 2025. We evaluate the impact of cross-border transmission capacity on dispatch costs, curtailment needs for renewable energy sources (RES), on CO2 emissions, on hydro storage utilisation and on security of supply (in terms of energy not served). The analysis is performed with EUPowerDispatch, a minimum-cost dispatch model. For the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio and electricity consumption we use the latest Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). The model results show that the planned additional cross-border transmission capacity between 2010 and 2025 will reduce annual dispatch costs, will have limited impact on the security of supply and will not be a significant cause of variable RES curtailment. However, in case of more RES, it will reduce dispatch costs to a larger extent and will considerably reduce RES curtailment needs, and, if demand grows at the historical rate of 2%, it will be needed to maintain the current level of security of supply. Moreover, our study shows that hydro pumping and storage and cross-border transmission are partly complementary technologies.