A preliminary exposure assessment model for Bacillus cereus cells in a milk based beverage: Evaluating High Pressure Processing and antimicrobial interventions

A stochastic exposure assessment model was developed to predict the final load (Nf, CFU/mL) of Bacillus cereus cells after being treated by High Pressure Processing (HPP) (100, 200, 300 MPa) and stored (10 °C, 15 days), in a milk-egg-cocoa (12% rich in polyphenols) mixture beverage. Results indicated that beverage supplemented with cocoa powder had final B. cereus concentration level of 6 CFU/mL at 95% probability, being below the infectious dose (104–105 CFU per mL) (). The most important factors affecting the final load of B. cereus cells in this beverage were ranged as follows: cocoa supplementation > HPP treatment > initial load (Log N0, CFU/mL) > and storage time (tSTORAGE, days). Those results show one more the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulation in performing exposure assessment studies focused on safety management at an industrial level.