Multiple linear regression modeling of disinfection by-products formation in Istanbul drinking water reservoirs

Oxidation of raw water with chlorine results in formation of trihalomethanes (THM) and haloacetic acids (HAA). Factors affecting their concentrations have been found to be organic matter type and concentration, pH, temperature, chlorine dose, contact time and bromide concentration, but the mechanisms of their formation are still under investigation. Within this scope, chlorination experiments have been conducted with water reservoirs from Terkos, Buyukcekmece and Omerli lakes, Istanbul, with different water quality regarding bromide concentration and organic matter content. The factors studied were pH, contact time, chlorine dose, and specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA). The determination of disinfection by-products (DBP) was carried out by gas chromatography techniques. Statistical analysis of the results was focused on the development of multiple regression models for predicting the concentrations of total THM and total HAA based on the use of pH, contact time, chlorine dose, and SUVA. The developed models provided satisfactory estimations of the concentrations of the DBP and the model regression coefficients of THM and HAA are 0.88 and 0.61, respectively. Further, the Durbin–Watson values confirm the reliability of the two models. The results indicate that under these experimental conditions which indicate the variations of pH, chlorine dosages, contact time, and SUVA values, the formation of THM and HAA in water can be described by the multiple linear regression technique.