Modeled and monitored variation in space and time of PCB-153 concentrations in air, sediment, soil and aquatic biota on a European scale Original Research Article

We evaluated various modeling options for estimating concentrations of PCB-153 in the environment and in biota across Europe, using a nested multimedia fate model coupled with a bioaccumulation model. The most detailed model set up estimates concentrations in air, soil, fresh water sediment and fresh water biota with spatially explicit environmental characteristics and spatially explicit emissions to air and water in the period 1930–2005. Model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSElog), based on the difference between estimated and measured concentrations. The RMSElog was 5.4 for air, 5.6–6.3 for sediment and biota, and 5.5 for soil in the most detailed model scenario. Generally, model estimations tended to underestimate observed values for all compartments, except air. The decline in observed concentrations was also slightly underestimated by the model for the period where measurements were available (1989–2002). Applying a generic model setup with averaged emissions and averaged environmental characteristics, the RMSElog increased to 21 for air and 49 for sediment. For soil the RMSElog decreased to 3.5. We found that including spatial variation in emissions was most relevant for all compartments, except soil, while including spatial variation in environmental characteristics was less influential. For improving predictions of concentrations in sediment and aquatic biota, including emissions to water was found to be relevant as well.